PJ's Movie Blog and Other Things: box office

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SEPTEMBER 25th Weekend Preview!

Well, if I had my way, I would allot all my confidence points on Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, since it has zero competition, is in 3D, and look to play for a long time. Unfortunately for me, there are 3 new wide releases that need to be considered, thus adding some difficulty to my confidence point strategy.

The big release this week is Surrogates, A thriller headlined by Bruce Willis. At my Whip It screening, there was also a Surrogrates advance screening and that was almost as popular as Whip It! even adding in the "filmed in Michigan" effect. There hasn't been a legit action film since Inglourious Basterds. The market is really open for this sort of film. The tv spots have vastly improved as well. It may just break out and win the weekend if it all goes right. Since it could possibly do that, I am going to predict 18M and 10 Confidence points.

Another big film being released this weekend, is Fame. Fame is a remake of a film called Fame. The trailers reminded me a lot of Step Up, American Idol, yada yada. While it is not m cup of tea, it is featured in the most theatres this weeknd, so many eyes will be able to catch it if they have already seen Meatballs 7 times. I am going with 14M and 20 confidence points.

Finally, there is an actual horror film out this weekend. It's called Pandorum. The tv spots didn't really divulge much except scary! scary! I don't think it will out-open the much maligned Jennifer's Body though. I have it at 6M and am allotting 70 confidence points to it. It is in a lot of theatres but it looks too generic to be able to bust out too much. It is in a healthy amount of theatres so it may do better then I expect.

For the Independent spotlight - I am going to go ahead and whore out Whip it! which you can watch on sneaks for Saturday and get a free t-shirt! Maybe if it does well enough, I'll write a review. If you can't catch that, then if you live in LA or NY, then go to Capitalism a Love Story! Also, Bright Star is expanding, and even though I could tear it a new one, I'd still recommend it for those who enjoy period pieces and love stories.

2 other films to watch are IFC's Brief Interviews With Hideous Men! and Audrey Tatou in Coco Before Chanel! Sheesh, that's a lot of films to watch! Stop reading and go now!

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RESULTS - With Updated Confidence Points

Jennifer's Body bombed. Luckily I only spent 5 confidence points on it so the damage is not that bad. As you can see, the film where i spent nearly all of my confidence points, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, I got 99% on. So suck on that bitches. Overall, I got 90 out of a possible 100 confidence points. 80 for Cloudy and 10 for Love Happens. Not bad for the first time around.

Next week there is a musical remake, a Bruce Willis thriller, an actual horror film, and some sort of buddy comedy based on a book, plus a bunch of Oscar bait limited release including Michael Moore's new documentary WHICH I ALREADY SAW, Bright Star, which I am GOING TO SEE REALLY SOON, and

Coco Before Chanel. AND Whip It which comes out next week, I am seeing this weekend barring any unforeseen circumstances.

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Derby for Cloudy + Body Weekend

As you can see I made little adjustments from Monday. I actually raised Jennifer's Body up 5M. Most notably from the poll on Sportsnation and how well it is also doing in Box Office Mojo polling. I lowered Love Happens after seeing the theatre count. It just isn't in enough to make a huge impact + I think that it will have to rely on demos that don't rush out to the theatre opening weekend. Also, feeling good about the The Informant! number since if the older demos would go out this weekend, that would probably be their first choice. I suspect this willl be another crazy weekend where anything can happen! Have fun!

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So about that Derby . . . . .

So, I was just going to ignore this week and start fresh with this weekend's box office take, but well, since I share everything, this is most defintely going to be shared. I haven't scored this well in FOREVER! So please excuse me if I feel happy for a bit.

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This Weekend!

There are so many crazy films coming out this weekend. I have to talk about it. At least a little bit!

The mega huge film coming out this weekend is Cloudy with a Chance with Meatballs. There is no doubt it will be one of September's biggest openers. Why? The lack of competition, 3D, and an extremely wide release has made it all but a certainty that will take the weekend. It could go 30+. I am allotting nearly 80 out of my 100 confidence points on this film.

Then there are other films. Films that have question marks. There is Love Happens. Yay a romantic comedy. But is it any different then what is already playing on Lifetime? I am not going to underestimate Anniston's pull but there is a reason why it is being released in September and not July. I'd go with under 6M and 10 confidence points.

Finally, there is the wild card. This is one of the reasons why I started doing the whole confidence points thing. The film is called Jennifer's Body. It was written by Diablo Cody of Juno fame and stars Megan Fox from transformers and various magazines. Tracking is kind of low, in my opinion, for variables such as these. Since we have yet to see if Fox can open a film like Anniston, whether it will open higher or lower then tracking is all up in the air. I'm going to go above tracking because the television doesn't lie. 15 mill and 5 confidence points.

The Informant! also opens this weekend. It looks like an amazing laugh out loud comedy from Soderberg but we know different. It will be a smiley face rather then a knee slapper. It is tracking really well. I think it can do numbers close to Burn After Reading. 15M and 10 confidence points.

Only 2 films on the limited release from Paris with Juliette Binoche, which I assume will win come in 2nd for the PTA weekend behind Meatballs and the other is The Burning Plain by the dude that wrote one of those Oscar bait films that I can't remember at the moment. It should do decently.

Mabe I might add a movie review soon! I saw the original Bad Lieutenant!

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Long Delay

The reason why there has been a long delay in between posting is because I wasn't just going to merely transport my activities from Tumblr to Blogger. Nope instead, i am going to change some things. Like the way I write up articles about the weekend. I always used to read articles before and it is always in the tone of "IT's MY Way Or The HIghway!" leaving little to no room for actually being wrong, since that happens a lot. So when those authors end up being wrong, they pretend like nothing ever happened. I already had full disclosure by posting the before and after scores, now I will add some new spice to it.

This weekend showed me something. I was playing a different movie game, that is kind of like the stock market. Well, I had full confidence in holding s couple of films "Short" or that they won't meet the price after the weekend results come in, and there was another film that I thought would do well, but did not have as much confidence in that. I didn't end up playing it for the weekend, and whaddaya know? My lack of confidence payed off and I didn't lose any money on that stock.

So this is my new plan for the weekend. Instead of just announcing that my opinion is the law, I'm going to allot 100 confidence points to distribute among the openers. That will be yet another scale, and I think it also captures the nuance that goes through my mind when I am saying what I am saying. So for example, if I thought that Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs was going to open to 300M this weekend for certain I would assign a high amount of points to it, like 80 of the 100. And the opposite if I don't. Nice, clean, simple, and easy!

New posts coming soon!

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